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EPAK: His northern UPC seat is safe |
By Hamis Kaheru
FOLLOWING the referendum, it is now definite that next year Ugandans will vote in the first multiparty elections in 25 years. Under multiparty democracy there shall be a leader of the opposition in Parliament.
Democratic Party (DP) chief Dr. Paul Ssemogerere played this role in the 1980-85 parliament, as did Basil Bataringaya in the 1960s. Bataringaya had been elected MP on a DP ticket but later crossed to UPC and became a minister. Ssemogerere became leader of the opposition because he had won a parliamentary seat in Buganda. His counterpart in the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), Dr. Milton Obote, never offered himself for election as MP.
Had DP won the 1980 elections, UPC would have chosen another person to be leader of opposition in parliament. The same would apply under a DP government if Obote had contested for a parliamentary seat and lost.
Who will be the opposition leader in the eighth parliament? The National Resistance Movement (NRM) looks set to form the next government, which leaves the contest between UPC, DP and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). Any of the three that comes second to NRM will provide the leader of opposition.
Unlike DP and UPC, which have been hit by splits, FDC seems to be intact. Party leader Col. (rtd) Dr. Kizza Besigye still commands respect and his authority is unchallenged. FDC has also been more active on the ground than UPC or DP, but this does not mean it will have the most seats in parliament.
As a new party, FDC lacks traditional followers and its leaders are still identified with the old parties. Issa Kikungwe, for example, would find it easier to win on a DP ticket. There is no guarantee that he would win if he chose to run on a FDC ticket and DP backed a rival candidate. The same applies to Reagan Okumu, Michael Ocula, Ogenga Latigo, Odonga Otto and Ojok B’leo who are from UPC strongholds.
FDC leaders from western Uganda like Jack Sabiiti, Augustine Ruzindana and John Kazoora will most likely lose to NRM candidates, which may explain why Guma Gumisiriza has gone back to the roots. Only Miria Matembe has a chance because of her personal attributes, and Christopher Kibazanga due to his royal connections in Kasese. The Bakiga land and leadership issues may boost Capt. Charles Byaruhanga’s fortunes.
FDC has powerful people in Busoga like Salaamu Musumba, Harry Kasigwa, Abdu Katuntu and Frank Nabwiso, but NRM seems to command majority support in the region. NRM also has a big following in Teso where FDC is represented by Alice Alaso, Geoffrey Ekanya, Francis Epetait, Elijah Okupa and Amuriat Oboi. Hopes are dim in Bugisu, where Nandala Mafabi seems to be a lone voice in an NRM stronghold.
This leaves West Nile as the only hope for FDC. In the last two elections, President Yoweri Museveni did poorly in West Nile and Kassiano Wadri, John Arumadri and Alex Onzima may keep the fire burning for FDC. But this will not be enough for FDC to qualify to lead the opposition after March 2006.
On the other hand, UPC is assured of about 15 seats in Acholi and Lango. Maj. Kakooza Mutale confessed that he feared UPC while launching his referendum campaign for retention of the Movement.
“The strongest political party in Uganda now is UPC. It is UPC which has governed Uganda twice and longest. So I wanted to start my anti-referendum drive in Apac to win a few people for the Movement,” Mutale said. He was right.
Currently, UPC has five out of six seats in Apac, and may snatch the only NRM seat — occupied by Jovino Akaki — as well. The only contested seat is that of Ben Wacha, who is accused of abandoning his constituents. However, voters may still prefer Wacha to an NRM candidate. The seats currently held by Betty Amongi, Okull-Epak, Anang-Odur and Omodi Okot are safely in UPC hands.
In Gulu, NRM currently has one seat, occupied by Betty Akech, while DP has two, held by Zachary Olum and Nobert Mao. Okumu and Ocula are FDC leaders, leaving Jacob Oulanyah as the only self-confessed UPC spear.
However, DP risks losing Mao’s, Olum’s, Okumu’s and Ocula’s seats to UPC in case the two parties field different candidates. NRM will keep Akech’s seat because her appointment as minister has greatly improved her rating in the area. This gives UPC at least four seats in Gulu.
In Lira, only Okot Ogong belongs to the NRM but he is reportedly not very firm in his seat. The remaining seven seats (Charles Angiro, Margaret Ateng, Cecilia Ogwal, Omara Atubo, John Odit, Ojok B’leo and Alex Okot) are for UPC. UPC may therefore take all the eight seats in Lira if Ogong does not receive enough reinforcements.
Currently NRM supporters hold three seats in Apac, but in Pader where Odonga Otto and Ogenga Latigo belong to FDC and Santa Okot to NRM, voters may choose new faces if UPC fields it own candidates.
The central region has been DP’s stronghold since 1961, but NRM has infiltrated this area massively. Currently, DP has only Latif Sebaggala, Sebuliba Mutumba, Issa Kikungwe, Joseph Balikuddembe and John Kawanga. The party’s fortunes may only improve in Mawokota South and Kabula where NRM’s Mutebi Kityo and James Kakooza are reportedly shaky. DP can hope for a maximum of seven seats and FDC five.
UPC, with five seats in Apac, seven in Lira, at least three in Gulu and one or two in Pader, is sure of winning at least 15 seats. The leader of opposition will therefore most likely come from UPC, not FDC or DP.
Ends
Published on: Sunday, 31st July, 2005
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