The behavior of the Mexican economy in the coming months will depend greatly on: What happens to the epidemic.
Yesterday, at the National Meeting of BBVA’s Regional Directors, this conclusion can be reached from the vision of health professionals, economists and even Treasury Secretary, Arturo Herrera.
Although there are undoubtedly other factors that affected this year’s economic performance, they are crucial Is the economic impact of the epidemic.
And it will be what continues to define the future.
There are already signs of recovering for several weeks, but the future will be very different If regrowth can be avoided or if it does occur.
If the situation we will see in Mexico in the near future is similar to what is happening today in Spain, France or Italy, it is likely that not only economic estimates, but also economic policy decisions will be reviewed.
The medical professionals who participated in the discussion were critical in two ways.
The first is that Countries that managed to avoid the second wave, Or those that have limited it, are those that have used a range of health policies.
First of all, the A proactive test It seeks to detect the infection instead of infected and already symptomatic patients who are requesting testing. Another factor is prof Strict mask use policy In places where infection may have occurred, including the application of fines to violators.
In his post yesterday, Minister Arturo Herrera was clear in declaring this There is no division between health and economy.
The more effectively the epidemic is contained, the more likely it is that the impact on economic activity will be less.
There is consensus on that. The difference is in the evaluation of the effectiveness of the measures applied in Mexico to contain the epidemic.
The formal evaluation is that proper work is being done. This indicates that the vast majority of professionals are not associated with public agencies Mexico is one of the countries that made one of the worst administrations In containing the pandemic, using very different benchmarks for comparison.
With injuries expected to accelerate in the coming months and that we will also have a second wave in Mexico, Minister Herrera preferred Failure to refer to various fiscal policy measures To deal with this circumstance.
It should be remembered that Undersecretary Gabriel Yorio, on September 22, indicated that the Treasury Department kept a letter as a second line of defense in the event of a second wave of infections, the debt letter.
The official took longer to indicate this than President Lopez Obrador to disavow him.
The conclusion of the various analyzes presented at the aforementioned meeting points to A. A complex short-term outlook, But in identifying them The strengths of the Mexican economy that remainRegardless of the policies and circumstances.
In the long term, it has been pointed out that foreigners, who have the opportunity to compare different options, continue to see our country as a good investment alternative.
However, the capital does not arrive alone. It requires an effort of certainty and reinforcement that continues to be one of the biggest pending tasks.
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