Eradication of COVID-19 is likely possible and more than polio, although much less than smallpox
eradication Globalism of COVID-19 ‘maybe possible’ and more of polio, though far less than smallpox, say experts, for whom key challenges are ensuring high acceptance vaccine and response Virus variants.
These are some of Conclusions For an analysis that includes a comparative degree of the technical, social, political and economic factors of the three injuries, this also points, among the challenges, to achieving the necessary international cooperation against “nationalism of vaccines.”
For the signatories to the study published in Global Health BMJImmunization, public health measures, and global interest in achieving this goal as a result of the massive financial and social devastation, make eradication possible.
But the main challenges lie in ensuring a vaccination coverage High enough to be able to respond quickly enough to variants that could escape immunity, add experts from the University of Otago Wellington (New Zealand).
to estimate feasibility of eradication of COVID-19, defined as “the permanent reduction of global infection caused by a specific agent to zero as a result of deliberate efforts,” the authors compared it to two other viral pests for which vaccines were or were available, smallpox and polio.
The researchers used a scoring system three points for each of the 17 variables, including the availability of a safe and effective vaccine; lifelong immunity effect of public health measures; Effective government management of infection control messages.
besides Political and public interests Because of economic and social repercussions or acceptance of control measures.
The mean score in the analysis was 2.7 for smallpox, 1.6 for COVID-19 and 1.5 poliomyelitis.
“Although our analysis is a initial effortWith so many endogenous components, it appears to put the elimination of COVID-19 within the scope of what is feasible, particularly in terms of technical feasibility,” they assert.
Realize that with regard to smallpox and polio, Technical challenges of eradication of COVID-19 includes poorer acceptance of the vaccine and the emergence of more transmissible variants that could evade immunity, which could lead to overriding programs universal vaccination.
“However, viral evolution has its limitations, so it is expected that eventually the virus will reach its maximum fitness and that they may Formulation of new vaccinesThey are arguing.
For researchers, other challenges are the high initial costs (of vaccination and health systems improvement) and achieving the necessary international cooperation against “vaccine nationalism” andanti-science aggression” mediated by governments.
The virus persists in lockers Animals can also frustrate efforts, but that doesn’t seem to be a problem cool, they suggest.
On the other hand, they highlight the “unprecedented global interest in disease control And a huge investment in pandemic vaccination.”
And unlike smallpox and the poliomyelitis, from COVID-19 also from the additional impact of public health measures, such as border controls, social distancing, contact tracing and the use of face mask, which “can be very effective if well deployed”.
The elimination and sustainability of COVID-19 has been achieved over long periods in various jurisdictions in the region Asia PacificThey summarize, “provide a proof-of-concept that global eradication is technically feasible.”
the smallpox He was declared eliminated in 1980 and two of the three serotypes subordinate polio virus also was eradicated all over the world.
With information from EFE
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