Long recovery of the Mexican economy

The Mexican economy could experience the longest and most painful recovery period in its history, which will be achieved until 2024 when the value of GDP returns to the same level before the outbreak of the epidemic.

“There is no way in the second quarter of the year for us to finish the recovery like there is in the United States,” said Gabriella Seeler, director of economic and financial analysis at Banco Base, who indicated in a press conference.

He noted that our main trading partner has an accelerated recovery, to the point that in the second quarter it will reach the pre-pandemic level, and will become an expansion from the third quarter.

The latter is explained by the fiscal stimulus policy applied alongside the expansionary monetary policy.

“(The American Federation) is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2021, the highest growth rate since 1984, so it will recover everything that has fallen in 2020.”
Thus, he reiterated that a full recovery of the United States will occur in the second quarter of 2020, but that in Mexico it will continue until 2024.

Regarding Mexico, he emphasized that the news in Mexico is not good, as the impact of the US withdrawal on Mexico is greater than 80%, but the lack of confidence in the economy is reflected in the reports we already know about the GDP. .

He indicated that for the second quarter of 2021, he expects a quarterly recovery of 0.2% and 16.8% annually, which does not offset the decline in the same quarter of last year and is only classified as a (statistical) recovery effect.

In its centralized scenario, core banking experts consider the Mexican economy to grow by 4.6% in 2021.