The primary fiscal deficit in 2020 ended at around 6.5% of GDP, a figure lower than the government and consulting firms had forecast a few months earlier, after December added $ 307.627.5 million ($ 3559 million) to the nonfinancial red. In the 2021 budget forecast, there was a red figure of 8.2% of GDP, while Economy Minister Martin Guzman and his officials have already spoken of a defect of around 7% of GDP in recent months. Finally, the number decreased, although it is quite high in historical comparison.
The Coronavirus crisis and the severe and expanded restrictions adopted by the Executive Authority to contain its spread have included spending approximately 3.5% of GDP, so if income and expenditures are maintained in real terms, the red for 2021 may be less than the official projection of 4.5% for the product.
For some analysts, this is a pre-attainable goal and there may also be a margin to cover some unexpected expenses, although they maintain a certain amount of suspicion given the persistence of a large portion of coronavirus-related spending, such as IFE and ATP subsidies that have been diverted into. Other support plans.
Wisdom prevails in the government and they prefer not to speak of a more limited deficit, given that there is a possibility of unforeseen expenditures undermining potential projections of smaller size. In addition, there is no scheduled date for the rate adjustment, which adds to the support lines even though it is working on a plan of piecemeal increases that keeps the ratio steady in terms of GDP.
Maintaining the freeze for another quarter would add 0.3% to the deficit.