Difficult times ahead
We have spent several weeks analyzing and commenting on the economic slowdown that the global economy is going through, and which, in turn, is facing the Mexican economy. According to the International Monetary Fund (for short, IMF), the economic cooling that all economies of the world are experiencing, due to various factors, limits their capacity, as long as they readjust the macroeconomic schemes (forecasts) to the bottom. with which different governments work. As we have said on numerous occasions, the future that awaits these economies today, given the increasingly bleak context, is far from what we saw months ago.
Although organizations have warned that economies are not exempt from new cuts in their forecasts, it is worth noting that these new cuts have already arrived and, based on forecasts published today, are a reality. In the same way, it is pertinent to point out that similar to the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and UNCTAD, as well as many organizations, they began to coincide, and so too we share this pessimism that brings together the above-mentioned forecasts, which, unlike those published Previously, she says, the economy will grow much less than expected a few weeks ago.
To get an idea of what I’m commenting on, or the size of what I’m showing, it’s enough to look at the downgrade applied to the global economic outlook, which has gone from 6% growth this year and 5% over the next, to growing 3.2% during this exercise, in 2022, and 2.9% through 2023. In the same vein as these cuts have been applied to the global economy, they are beginning to apply to the economy of Mexico which, due to its exposure due to its close relationship with the United States, could begin to lower institutional capacity, among other factors, to stagnate. in the coming months.
Taking into account the forecasts prepared by the organization for the Mexican economy in this new context, we must point out that these, like the global ones we just reviewed, have undergone a revision that anticipates a much bleaker future for the Aztec economy. In this sense, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the Mexican economy will grow 2.1% this year, down from the 2.4% estimated in July. In addition, looking at the next exercise, the IMF expects growth of 1.2%, which is a similar forecast to that of the organism in July, but this is far from the 2.5% it forecast in April.
The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, noted at a meeting before the assembly aimed at bringing together various economic ministers from all economies of the world, that at the moment “the economy is a ship in troubled waters”. But, in the same way that she revealed this metaphor, the director of the organization also took the opportunity to say, in line with what her predecessor in office and the current head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said that the situation is far from improving, it will only get worse, and citizens must be prepared for the situation disturbances that will last longer than expected; Incidentally, the door is left open to a severe recession if the actions of central banks and the stagnation of the economy are bypassed.
As we can see, the warnings start to come through very clearly when we look at the analysis, and the economy, far from what governments say, we look at in the light of the data. Tough times lie ahead, and Moody’s analysts have already warned that the alarm could worsen in the case of economies such as those of Latin America. It’s time to act and prepare, because whatever else is coming up from some economies that, like Mexico, still have many battles to fight.
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