Hacienda, Better Predictions Than Saves

The GDP behavior calculations of the Ministry of Finance for the fourth quarter of the first year of the government failed completely, and that was the full responsibility of this administration, which is far from achieving the promised growth of 4%. Led the Mexican economy into a recession.

It was impossible to meet the initial forecast of 2020 GDP in Mexico and anywhere in the world, because the epidemic broke out to change the course of history.

Over the past year, the Treasury has revised its downturn in the economy several times to put it near an 8 percent drop. An account that seemed less pessimistic than that of the rest of the analysts at the time.

Thus, Arturo Herrera’s Finance Ministry was very close to the bottom line of the worst data on GDP behavior in nearly 100 years in Mexico. This renews its bonds so that, with the aim of presenting economic precedent for 2022, before April 1, it will now correct its forecast. For this year, GDP growth is expected to reach 5%.

It is good for the Treasury to be a better predictor and certified predictor, and what it cannot avoid is the burden of not being able to be a suitable savior of the economy in the midst of a crisis due to a pandemic and in the face of the worst recession in recent history.

Ultimately, the Finance Ministry was unable to implement a countercyclical program to support workers, because their boss did not allow them to.

The Treasury relies on the executive branch, which is not just about the organizational structure, but about truly full dependence on the decisions of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. If bailing out those who have lost income under the vision of 4T Leader is a matter of neoliberals, it simply isn’t.

In a presidential system, it is the CEO who makes these types of financial decisions. But in past governments, treasury experts had room to maneuver to operate, on the grounds that this is where the experts are.

Perhaps only the hostile state of the current circumstance, in which the president dominates everything, occurred during Vicente Fox’s six-year tenure, when Treasury Secretary Francisco Gilles Diaz sent himself alone.

The controlling scope of the incumbent president reaches Congress, so it seems to be a bad banter that Morena senators are filling their mouths with the fact that the secret game is over, when the entire budget is at these times a discretionary party of Lopez Obrador.

Consequently, the Finance Ministry will improve its GDP growth forecast, and boast of it, at least for this year. You will forget to say it is just a recovery from the US economic bailout.

But, in any case, restoring their expectations to credibility is a work of justice for the Treasury experts, who know a lot about their work but tie their hands within the National Palace itself.

The Finance Ministry is improving, and will boast, its GDP growth forecast at least this year. You will forget to say that it is only a recovery from the US economic bailout.

It is good for the Treasury to be a better predictor and certified predictor, and what it cannot avoid is the burden of not being able to be a suitable savior of the economy in the midst of a crisis due to a pandemic and in the face of the worst recession in recent history.

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