Markets are on alert of a new Asian black swan that could hit the global economy

Markets and geopolitical analysts are concerned about the potential conflict between them United States and China by Taiwan, prior to the possible trip of the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi.

Pelosi’s visit to the island could harm the political relationship between Beijing and Washington. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Tan Kefei called on the United States on Tuesday to fulfill its “promise not to support Taiwan independence.”

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Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi.

Faced with this situation, some managers are dealing with China and technology holdings to account for this risk. China has warned that any trip by Pelosi, which has not yet officially confirmed her visit, would lead to “serious consequences.” For their part, US military officials warned that the trip might not be a good idea in this context.

If the actor travels in August, it will be the first visit by a US House speaker to Taiwan since 1997, when Newt Gingrich was on the island.

For its part, China claims the island’s independence and points out that Taiwan is a sticky province.

China calls for Taiwan independence.

What does Taiwan look like and why is it a place that attracts both countries?

Taiwan is an island 245 miles long and has 90% of advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Even Beijing has Taiwan in mind to integrate it into China.

According to Andy Rothman, investment analyst at Matthews Asia, he said previous meetings between US and Taiwanese officials were held in informal settings such as hotels and restaurants, but later held in “formal” venues such as the State Department.

However, groups from Congress and senior administration officials toured Taiwan earlier. Pelosi’s arrival will come at a time when China is more concerned about US rhetoric and regulations.

What do geopolitical analysts believe?

Geopolitical analysts are concerned about the risks of conflict. For his part, Rothman expressed concern that some US politicians might be underestimating the issue, which is too sensitive for the Chinese government, according to US media.

“This is an issue that will continue to simmer with a relatively high rate of tension compared to the past few years, but I don’t think the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait is great enough to deter investment in Taiwan,” Rothman told Barroom. or mainland China.

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