Recession could hit the US in mid-2023, economists estimate

A group of economists interviewed in a poll published Monday determined that there is little chance that the Federal Reserve (FED) will be able to control inflation without pushing the US economy into recession.

According to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey, 72% of economists expect the country’s next recession to begin in the middle of 2023, if it has not already started.

It is already in a recession. One in five economists (19%) say the economy is already in a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

  • And 20% don’t expect the recession to start before the second half of next year.

What does this mean. In a statement, NABE President David Altige said that “the survey results reflect many of the divided opinions among speakers” and that “this in and of itself indicates that there is less clarity than usual in the picture.”

  • This survey is conducted every six months and developed between August 1 and 9.
  • 198 NABE members participated in it.

hard road. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a press conference that there is still a way to control inflation and avoid a recession. However, he also acknowledged that the path has become narrower as the Fed has had to resort to massive rate hikes to bring down the cost of living.

  • 72% of forecasters are not confident that the Fed will be able to raise inflation to 2% without causing a recession in the next two years.
  • Only 13% of them expressed confidence that the organization is achieving its goal.
  • On the other hand, the law to reduce inflation got the support of economists in the same survey.

The Main Source: CNN Business

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