In February, the US CPI was driven by the increase in gasoline prices due to the conflict in Europe record level 7.9% the highest since January 1982.
“If the salary goes up, the cost of the most important raw material goes up, and therefore, you can have inflationary spirals. Today the salary is less than inflation. This spiral cannot happen today,” he said.
Luis Gonzali noted that the Federal Reserve is expected to reach a maximum rate of 3.25% to 3.5% in the interest rate near the end of next year, “and then begin to decline by about 3% by 2024,” he said.
In a scenario where prices have risen due to external problems, such as supply chains, central banks can do little, Gonzali said, recalling the words of Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, from last week.
“If the Fed gets nervous and ends up raising the rate aggressively, it probably will reduce consumption and end up lowering inflation, but we will see a deep recession,” he said, noting that the Fed’s idea is to have a slow decline in The economic activity.
“The Fed and Banexico are playing to maintain expectations and you can’t do more than that from a monetary point of view,” he added.
Gonzali added that compared to Mexico, monetary policy in the United States is more effective and when the US central bank increases the reference rate, “the economy slows down.”
The fact that the Bank of Mexico started raising interest rates before the Fed is due to the fact that developed markets have a different rhythm than emerging markets, co-director of investments at Franklin Templeton explained.
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