Caracas, August 23 (EFE). – Venezuela’s economic growth forecast for this year, set by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in its report today at 10%, is “extremely limited,” because it is based on estimates, not official data, economist and university professor Ronald Palza Guanipa told Efe on Tuesday.
The economist explained after the publication of the latest report of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in which he expects Latin America to grow 2.7% this year, an increase of one point from its previous report, and that Venezuela tops the list of economies that will expand more.
He stressed that “any announcement of a 10% increase seems like a lot, but that does not mean, even if it is true, that it is sustainable growth over time”, and emphasized that Venezuela is omitted from many indicators due to “information gaps”.
In this regard, he pointed out that the components of this growth should be considered, as they could be attributed to trade, investment, economic activities, a “rapid recovery” or an increase in productive capacity.
But Balza stressed that, in the case of Venezuela, these forecasts are supported by other estimates, because the Central Bank (BCV) has not reported GDP behavior since the first quarter of 2019 and is now. They are unaware of local economic and investment processes.
He explained, citing the report of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, that the variable used to measure growth, given the lack of information, is that it is an oil country that “has large reserves and great production potential.”
“To talk about whether 10% is too much or too little, or can be maintained over time, we need to know in detail what activities are going on and also whether they are made with significant investment components or primary consumption,” he explained. expert.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean predicts that the economies that will expand the most this year are Venezuela (10%), Panama (7%), Colombia (6.5%), the Dominican Republic (5.3%), Uruguay (4.5%), and Guatemala (4. %). Honduras (3.8%), Bolivia (3.5%) and Argentina (3.5%), according to the “Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Study” report.
In the middle of the table are Costa Rica (3.3%), Cuba (3%), Nicaragua (3%), Ecuador (2.7%), Peru (2.5%) and El Salvador (2.5%), while the countries that will grow less will be Mexico (1.9%) , Chile (1.9%), Brazil (1.6%), Paraguay (0.2%) and Haiti (-0.2%).
For the Caribbean, the expansion is estimated at 10.2%, or 4.7%, not counting Guyana, which has been experiencing an oil boom for some time. EFE
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