Domestic factors could delay Mexico’s economic recovery


to me Center for Economic Studies for the Private Sector (CEESP), the growth forecast and Mexico’s economic recovery is favorable; But they are Internal factors that can slow down your progress. Likewise, the support is in The Dynamics of the United States Economy Still represents suspicion Main Economic indicators In Mexico.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported that its average growth forecast for 2021 increased from 3.89% to 4.53%. Specialists from the private sector commented that this percentage is mainly due to indicators of economic confidence that have recovered after the return of productive activities during the new normal.

Other important economic recovery forecasts correspond to International Monetary Fund (IMF), updated from 4.3% to 5.0% in the first quarter of 2021. The private sector indicated that this change provides Adequate economic outlook to reverse the loss 8.2% reported before International Monetary Fund During 2020. However, he cautioned that the fund’s outlook is highly dependent on sUnited States economic recoveryWhich has an expected growth rate of 6.4%.

In the face of doubts about the economic dynamism of the United States, CEESP indicated that A. Appropriate vaccination day In the country it can maintain productive activity and Development in economic indicators. In March, Prof. Non-farm work in the United States It grew by 16% with an increase of 916 thousand people. It offers a positive view in the middle Health crisis. “The outlook for Mexico on the basis of a strong revitalization in the United States is favorable, but not without risk.”The center warned that their situation may change at any time.

to me Internal factors maybe Alleviate the economic recoverySpecialists shed light on vaccinationAnd the consumption e investment. The CEESP You mentioned, the vaccines received in Mexico as of April 5 amount to 15.2 million, however The application rate is low. Sources consulted by specialists indicated that Herd immunity in Mexico It can be reached until 2022 or 2023.

For its part, Consumption shows a bit of dynamisma Because of Job insecurity s Low family income, Reported the private sector. Figures from the center show that the indicator corresponding to consumption closed at 1.0% monthly and -5.7% annually. The Inflationary pressure He added that among the additional factors to the decline in consumption was an internal factor, as it closed at levels above 4.0%.

According to CEESP, Uncertainty caused by the government’s economic policies and proposals from Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador Considered the most important obstacle to Economic revitalization. In this regard, they report that this first affects A. Low investment, where is the Physics Nearly 6 points dropped from Gross Domestic Production (GDP), from 22.8% to 17.3%; While the Year It went from 2.9% to 2.6%, and Spread 17.3% to 14.7%.

In the Executive Economic Analysis, In consultation with a team Notepress, Specialists in CEESP In conclusion, it must be The government is looking for schemes to manage its priorities without shutting down economic activities. What it includes from Entry and private participation, Until an upgrade Investing at all levels, As far as indispensable Internal factors of economic recovery.

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