Global trade goes beyond pre-existing levels

Between January and March of this year (Q1 21), the value of world trade grew by about 4% on a quarterly basis and 10% on an annual basis, and compared to the same period in 2019 the increase was 3%, thus surpassing pre-COVID levels. .

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that exports from the United States, Mexico and Canada increased by 3% compared to the same period in 2020 and 1% compared to the first quarter of 2019.

Imports to this region increased by 13% compared to January-March 2020 and 8% compared to the first quarter of 2019.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicated that the rebound in trade in the first quarter of 21 was driven by export performance from East Asian economies, which reached an annual growth of 33 percent.

Compared to the first quarter of 2019, the progress is 25%. In the case of imports, the increase was 23% in the first quarter of 2017 and 19% in the same period in 2019.

The agency expects the recovery to continue in the second quarter of 2021 and expects the value of global trade to reach $ 6.6 trillion.

This would be a year-on-year increase of about 31% for the lowest level in 2020 and about 3% compared to 2019 levels.

The positive outlook will depend on easing restrictions due to the epidemic, continued positive trend in commodity prices, general restrictions on protectionist trade policies, and favorable macroeconomic and financial conditions.

Some economies are also expected to recover stronger and faster than others, such as China and the United States to be the main drivers of global growth during 2021.

This should also have positive effects on countries whose trade is relatively more complementary to them, for example, East Asian countries with China, Canada and Mexico with the United States.