The recovery induced by external demand and advancement in the vaccination process are the two primary elements that support improvement For Mexico’s economic performance in 2021, and this could lead to growth between 4.5 and 5.0 percent.
The 2021 growth vision for Mexico’s GDP improved significantly during the first quarter. Between international organizations, local public organizations and private sector analysts.
The two major surveys of private sector analysts improved their average (average) forecast. On one side, The monthly poll among analysts prepared by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) moved from the 3.74% scenario published on the first business day of February to 4.53%. Which was unveiled on April 5th.
For this part, Citibanamex’s survey of expectations, conducted every two weeks, has evolved from 3.5% in the survey published on January 20 this year to 4.6% on April 6. In the latter case, it is known that there is a range between 3.8% as a minimum in which Monex, Multiva and Bancoppel coincide, and 5.8% as a maximum that JP Morgan predicts.
Regarding international organizations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its growth forecast for Mexico from 4.3 to 5.0% in 2021. Two days ago, the International Monetary Fund had warned that the upward revision of this country’s GDP had been consolidated. The positive impact of foreign demand, driven by the better performance of the United States as well as the economic impact of securing ‘sufficient vaccines to cover the population’.
In my quarterly inflation report in March, Banxico indicated that it expects 4.8% economic growth for the current year, with a minimum margin of between 2.8% and 6.7% as a maximum.
Finally, the executive branch Provided through pre-policy standards A scenario of 5.3% economic growth, with optimism in the polls.
Either way, no In this case, the economic recovery in 2021 will be able to restore the previous level of GDP, as the economy collapsed last year by 8.2%.