The impact of the economy on the presidential elections in the United States

On November 5, a new electoral competition will be held in the United States to determine who will assume the presidency of the White House for the next four years.

The latest polls indicate that current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face each other again for the presidency. However, this time the context is very different.

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either way, There are many factors that could determine your fate once the polls open. On Biden's side, factors such as unconditional support for Israel, inflation, immigration, and his health could work against him; As for Trump, the judicial processes he faces make his path to returning to office more complicated.

In this sense, some analysts point out that the economy could be the catalyst for the success of the next US president. Indeed, in this scenario the question arises: What role will the economy play in voters' decisions in presidential elections?

According to Edgar Pulido, director of Colombia's Latin America offices, indicators show that the economy, at least so far, is in a strong position. This perspective is also based on the fact that at the end of 2023, it achieved growth of 3.1%, driven in part by spending and increased jobs.

(Read more: GDP of OECD countries as a whole grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2024)

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Pulido also notes that the economic outlook remains positive for the rest of the year. “It is expected that by the end of 2024, interest rates will continue to fall, which could help generate more economic activity and continue to rise.”Pulido highlighted.

On the other hand, with regard to risks or uncertainty that can have a negative impact on economic behavior, the expert points out that specific situations such as those in which The country is lagging behind in the race to produce microchips Or develop advanced technology.

“The US economy is not 100 percent dependent on those in the White House, it is about the potential for growth in new sectors of the economy. In this case, the next potential growth sector could come in the US economy and from the AI ​​side, where it has been The country is a pioneer in producing this technology.”Pulido added.

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