The United States economy benefits the most in the world from immigration

And at the same time it is Increasing numbers of immigrants United State This has divided politicians across the country — and raised concern among a large swath of voters — but there's one place where almost everyone seems equally optimistic: Wall Street.

Last month, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated. Which Immigration It will generate a $7 trillion increase in GDP over the next decade. The agency reached this conclusion after taking into account the recent increase in migration.

The CBO circular sparked a flurry of new accounts among economists at investment banks for the account Paid Provided by those who have recently arrived in the country on the labor force and consumer spending. Goldman Sachs Group on Sunday revised its forecast for near-term economic growth. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas were among the banks that acknowledged the economic impact of increased immigration in recent weeks.

“Immigration is not only a socially and politically charged issue, it is also an important macroeconomic issue,” Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. No advanced economy benefits from immigration as much as the United States and Europe “The impact of immigration has been an important part of growth in the United States over the past two years.”

Morgan Stanley economists Sam Coffin and Ellen Zentner noted this month that faster population growth fueled by immigration is giving way to stronger employment and population estimates than initially thought, though they added that official data may not reflect the full impact.

It is difficult to determine the exact size of the influx of foreign-born people, because… Many entered without visas or other documents. But Congressional Budget Office statisticians used U.S. Customs and Border Patrol data to come up with their upwardly revised forecast for net migration, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis.

Goldman estimates that the number of immigrants will reach about 2.5 million in 2023, much higher than the 1.6 million implied by the change in the foreign-born population in the official household survey conducted by the Census Bureau.

The positive tone among economists contrasts with what was observed during the election campaign, while the increase in the number of illegal immigrants entering the United States through the southern border is fueling the political conflict. The percentage of Americans who consider immigration the most important problem facing the United States now matches a record high in data recorded four decades ago, according to a recent Gallup poll. The country's 32.5 million immigrant workers now represent about one in five American workers. This is a record high in government data dating back nearly two decades.

To be sure, economists and policymakers have been noticing the connection between the growing influx of foreign workers and a rapid post-pandemic recovery for some time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly cited immigration as one of the reasons behind strong economic growth.

(Bloomberg)