The US economy tends to slow in 2022 after a slow first quarter

Luis Alejandro Amaya E.

America Editorial, June 4 (EFE). A large portion of America’s major economies saw moderate gross domestic product (GDP) growth during the first quarter of this year, compared to the impressive recovery observed throughout 2021, something that tends to be a slow 2022.

New forecasts published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in April for this year indicate that the region will achieve an average growth of 1.8%, a clear decline compared to the 6.9% recorded last year. .

In the ECLAC additional region, the United States did not escape this phenomenon and Canada did, but hardly.

Divergent North America

The US is feeling the steps of the recession closely, with a decline of 1.5% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier and 0.4% compared to the last quarter of 2021 confirmed.

However, experts like Connel Fullenkamp, ​​of Duke University, Efe emphasized that the most likely scenario would be a slowdown in the economy, but not a recession, given that unemployment is still very low and Americans’ consumption is solid.

Along the same lines, Brian Dees, director of the White House National Economic Council, voiced himself, who asserted that what was presented was a “transition” between what was “the strongest recovery in the modern history of the White House.” USA.” and a “more stable” period, albeit in lower numbers.

The most worrying aspect is inflation at 8.5%, the highest level in four decades.

For its part, Canada grew 0.8% in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter, which is 3.1% year-over-year.

According to Statistics Canada, real GDP rose 0.7% in March, after 0.9% growth the previous month.

The Bank of Canada expected the national economy to grow by 6% year-on-year in the second quarter of the year.

Growth in the first three months of 2022 represents the third consecutive quarter of expansion for the Canadian economy.

In Mexico, there was also a relatively positive sign, as GDP grew 1% quarterly between January and March 2022 compared to the same period before, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

But not all voices sing victory. “Comparing the figures for the first quarter of 2022 with GDP for 2019, before the pandemic, there is still a 2.5% lag,” emphasized Gabriela Seiler, director of economic analysis at Banco Base.

For the rest of the year, the Ministry of Finance estimates that the country’s gross domestic product will grow by 3.4%, contrary to the expectations of the private sector, which had forecast only 1.73%.

Argentina at the mercy of the bloating

To the volatility of the regional economy, especially after the serious impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Argentina is adding its own strength through inflation.

“We see a stagnation scenario, where in 2022 GDP will grow no more than 3.5% and inflation will be between 65% and 70%. We are in a process of stagflation,” said Leonardo Piazza, Director of Consulting. LP Consulting Company.

For Saha, economic activity will be further affected in the coming months by high inflation that “erodes” household income.

According to the refinancing agreement signed last March by the government of Alberto Fernandez and the International Monetary Fund for a loan of $ 44,000 million, Argentina will grow this year between 3.5% and 4.5%, which is far below the 10.3% recovery rate achieved in 2021.

The monthly estimator of economic activity in Argentina recorded an annual increase of 6.1% in the first three months of the year.

The Ministry of Productive Development said on April 25 that the economy grew by 1% on a quarterly basis.

Colombia also joins the ‘club’ with 1%

Art, entertainment and communications reported Colombia growing 1% of its GDP in the first three months of 2022 compared to the previous quarter.

Despite this positive result, a certain stagnation was observed compared to the previous quarters as GDP growth reached 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 6.4% in the third quarter.

Juan Daniel Oviedo, Director of the National Statistics Administration (DANE), noted “a revision (…) of annual growth rates since the second quarter of 2021”, noting that the Colombian economy grew by 10.6%. 2021 compared to the previous year.

Brazil is also growing, but moderately

The Brazilian economy grew by 1.7% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the last three months of 2021, after registering a 4.6% rise last year.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), growth in the first quarter was primarily driven by the services sector, which rose by 1% compared to the previous quarter and 3.7% compared to January and March 2021.

The government expects GDP growth of 1.5% this year, while the central bank forecasts 1%.

Peru, with one of the greatest growth

The Peruvian economy grew by 3.84% in the first quarter of this year, compared to the first three months of 2021, after it ended March with an increase of 3.79%.

This good data allows the government to estimate that the Andean country will close in 2022 with an overall growth of 3.6%, one of the highest in the region.

Despite this generous number, Oscar Chavez, head of the Institute for Economics and Business Development (Iedeb) at the Lima Chamber of Commerce, warned Effie that this growth is based on “private sector wrongdoing” and not the result of work he considers “the wrong way”.

“It will mean that in the future, especially next year, the prospects for growth will be much lower,” Chavez added.

Chile’s temperature drops compared to 2021

The Chilean economy expanded 7.2% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the same period the previous year, primarily driven by trade and personal services.

After a historic recovery in GDP of 11.7% in 2021, the largest expansion in four decades, the Chilean economy is showing signs of slowing down and registering inflation unprecedented since the 1990s.

At the beginning of May, Chile’s government lowered its growth forecast for 2022 from the 3.5% calculated in January by the previous administration to 1.5%, and raised the estimate for accumulated inflation over the twelve months to 8.9% for the end of the year. EFE

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