By the fourth quarter, time is getting scarcer

The unforgiving progress of time is certainly one of the factors that have caused the most tension in Mexico’s presidents when assessing the progress of their administrations. Certainly the heads of other states are also subject to this stress factor, although the possibility of renewal of the Mandate, through democratic means of course, causes them in many cases to suffer less severely than the heads of one term, as is the case of those in Mexico.

I don’t have anything that President Lopez Obrador already knows with great certainty that at the end of his administration, although there will be some progress in very specific areas, there will be setbacks or there will be no progress on a very wide range of issues, which will be more Sensitivity to the population without a doubt. First of all, in the field of economics, in addition to the effect on the growth rate of the economy, which everything indicates will lead to a lower GDP per capita than that recorded when he took office, it is clear that we will. We must also note that unfortunately his government will be remembered as one that has eroded the growth potential of the Mexican economy.

Existing indicators indicate that in the fight against poverty, it is very likely that the results that can be assumed will not be achieved either. We have already seen in the educational field that although we can point to the Covid-19 epidemic as a major distorting factor, we cannot help but bear in mind the astonishment with which I have responded to this challenge and that the erratic behavior of the educational process and policy, especially the concession to the teachers’ union, Already identifying a greater lag in Mexico than in other countries, especially in the context of performance assessments such as the PISA test, where Mexican children began to show shortcomings that caused retaliatory outbursts against educational reform that sought to improve the quality of education in our country.

In addition, there are many other areas where you don’t need to be a magician to anticipate a decline in Mexico in 2024 compared to what was recorded in 2018 when the fourth quarter arrives. In addition to the above, we will note that more than one of President López Obrador’s high priority projects could not be completed, among other reasons due to poor planning and hasty start-up of many of them, which will also be reflected in the real or actual costs that have been greatly exceeded Compared to originally promised or expected costs.

In addition to the above, the specter of inflation, which is beginning to be viewed with greater interest in the international context, may itself cause the scenario in which the president and his team unduly planned to shut down their administration. On the other hand, those inflationary expectations that began to affect the planning of many central banks, such as the Federal Reserve of the United States, which last week talked about the possibility of starting to increase interest rates on funds. The Feds are in that by 2023, it is also certain to change the US-Mexico relative interest rate scenario for 2023-2024, which will complicate the room for maneuver in the fourth quarter a bit more.

In the face of this increasingly complex scenario, President Lopez Obrador and his team may regret investing the first three years in so much confrontation and hostility against private, national and foreign investment, with no results or very poor outcomes, ever because from now on, they will feel that the time It will pass faster and it will not be enough to achieve the results they dreamed of before. As we colloquially say, the time has come for them.

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