Mexico is at a crossroads. This week I had the opportunity to share with various businessmen and experts their views on Mexico in the political and economic spheres.
The contrast is enormous. While some businessmen see a very favorable circumstance in terms of economic opportunity, the political panorama looks bleak with the potential to pollute the economy.
Why does it look good for Mexico in economic terms?
The credit is mainly due to its relationship with the United States.
Our northern neighbors have the world’s largest economy, which not only is experiencing one of the highest growth rates in decades this year, but under the Biden government’s policies, is likely to see high growth again. In 2022 and 2023, at the latest.
The problem is that economic and political life is not in different sections. The two are interconnected and coexist.
The views of various experts regarding Mexican politics coincide with their realization that President Lopez Obrador has changed after the June elections. She hardened and drew to solidify her strength.
One of the most important components of the concentration of force you seek is eliminating or at least weakening the counterweight.
For the following months, perhaps its most relevant target is the National Electoral Institute (INE).
Litigation related to the consultation on abolition of mandate is not a matter of appeal.
Political forces close to the president see in this case an opportunity to discredit the National Elections Institute.
Another ominous sign on the political scene concerns electricity reform, which is, in fact, energy reform.
If it is approved on the terms on which it is, this would mean a fatal blow to private sector participation in the sector, whether those resulting from the 2013 reform or those that came years ago, in addition to harming investment in many sectors. .
General Motors has already publicly stated that the sustainability of its investments in Mexico depends on policies aimed at promoting clean energy.
The issue is not just about the impact of this reform on the energy sector and environmental issues, an effect that would in itself be very dangerous, but about generating a general situation of investment uncertainty.
If you add the attack on the INE at the same time as energy reform, the risk of deep political regression could put us in a similar circumstance to what it was in the 1970s or 1980s.
She commented that the bleak political landscape could not be independent of the promising economic prospects.
Problems of government administration are likely to jeopardize the advantages of the economic situation.
So we are at a crossroads that could chart not only the immediate perspective but the future of the country.
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