Two halves will collide like trains
The two largest countries in Latin America are divided, by their population, in practically equal proportions. In Brazil, Lula narrowly won and will have to rule with opposition as strong as it is extreme. In the United States, the film has a very similar script, and in less than a week, it will turn into the horror genre.
Although they are at the parliamentary and regional level, The mid-term or midterm elections usually A referendum on the performance of the President of the Republic.
Internally, we have a file Biden Rejected and so far removed from that which has led the international response to authoritarian regimes seeking to end temporary settlement western. Curious, because we’re talking about who was the deputy prime minister, who ObamaSuccessful on the inside but disastrous on the outside.
Right or wrong, inflation is devouring the Biden administration. The hardline, slow, and detached government has failed to enforce the true narrative that inflation is the product of the invasion of Ukraine, the pandemic, and other issues that are not the government’s direct responsibility. This, of course, has been exploited by a radical opposition, agile in terms of communications and very connected to its bases.
With all that said, let’s not expect a Republican tide. Indeed, in terms of public support, There is a technical draw. The Republicans must win, but it won’t be the avalanche seen a few months ago. Although not as motivated as in 2018, young people are voting Millennials And Generation Z, it may end up saving the Democrats from humiliation. In fact, if this group came out to vote en masse, another rooster would crow.
[Trump quiere volver a la Casa Blanca: dice que “muy probablemente” se presente a las elecciones]
On the other hand, this midterm elections will be the starting signal for the 2024 presidential election. Donald Trumpwhose nomination is imminent, has the same approval as Biden: about 40%. The advantage over his opponent is that Trump represents his party’s rules like everyone else, unlike Biden with him. The downside for Donald is that his candidacy is unrestricted: he did. Ron DeSantis. If the current governor of Florida is comfortably re-elected, as expected, he will have something to waste at the former president at Republican caucuses.
However, the best news for Biden is that the nominee is Trump, because nothing will revitalize democratic and independent norms like the former president’s return to the electoral arena. DeSantis, for his part, dislikes freelancers, who are always critical and very bad.
A country, the number one power in the world, divided into two parts. Bad News.
*** Francisco Beaulio is an analyst specializing in Latin America and the United States.
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