Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 to November 30. Although weather events are recorded outside of those months, the highest concentration occurs in that period. Before its inception, major forecasters of the United States had predicted its quantity and size. After a year in which all historical records are shattered, with 20 specific storms – including 13 hurricanes – the trend looks set to continue in 2021..
Meteorologists from Colorado State University led by Phil Klotzbach announced the same Thursday Seventeen tropical storms are expected, 8 of which can turn into hurricanes. The regular season is a season with up to 12 specific storms and 6 hurricanes.. A tropical storm is considered a hurricane when wind speeds exceed 120 kilometers per hour.
But the prognosis goes beyond the high number of riots. According to experts, at least four hurricanes this season will be major tornadoes, that is, those classified in Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds exceeding 180 kilometers per hour. According to the study, there is a 69 percent chance that at least one of these major hurricanes will make landfall in the United States.
As the scientists explained, the current atmospheric conditions are very similar to those seen in 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2017.
“All those similar seasons have had a very intense activity.” Klotsbach explained when presenting the study, especially 1996 and 2017, which were very active seasons.
In the past six years, from a certain activity, at least one storm has always formed during the month of May, so it is not excluded that this also happened this year. Part of the reason they think there will be a lot of activity has to do with warming water in parts of the Atlantic and the lack of El Niño.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon of high water temperatures in the tropics of the Pacific Ocean, which generates vertical winds. When this happens, the atmospheric activity that leads to hurricanes over the Atlantic decreases. Conversely, La Niña occurs when the waters are cooler than normal in the tropics, and this generates a greater number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. La Niña is not expected this year, but El Niño is not expected.
Not only do these projections satisfy the public’s need to prepare for these phenomena, but they are essential for industries like insurance that calculate their policies based on these estimates.
Colorado State University is one of the most respected universities in the field, considering it has been predicting hurricanes for 38 years. For its part, the specialized media AccuWeather published its own forecast for the hurricane season last week and indicated that it expects between 16 and 20 specific storms, 10 of which could turn into hurricanes.. They added that they expect 3-5 storms to land in the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its forecast in May.
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