Given the surprising economic strength of the United States, its major trading partner will grow more than expected. This is what economists expect from the International Monetary Fund, which raised their estimate for Mexican GDP growth by 0.6% to 2.7% in 2024. The Fund expects Mexico to slow in 2025 and reach 1.5% growth. .
“As in other major economies in the region, there were improvements of 0.2 percentage points for Brazil and 0.6 percentage points for Mexico, mainly due to spillover effects of stronger-than-expected and higher-than-expected domestic demand in the key year. Trading partners,” it said. In the World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is expected to decline from an estimated 2.5% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2024, then rising to 2.5% in 2025. This implies a downward revision to 2024 of 0.4 percentage points. Compared to announced expectations. By the IMF in October 2023. The text says: “The revision of forecasts for 2024 is due to negative growth for Argentina in the context of a major adjustment in economic policy to restore macroeconomic stability.” The Argentine economy is expected to contract by -1.1% this year and -2.8% next year.
At the global level, the Fund expects the economy to slow down without contracting, and that inflation will continue to decline, which will represent a “soft landing” after economic stimulus policies in developed countries. In the years following the Covid-19 pandemic, economists feared that inflation and the end of social benefits would contribute to a recession. But by referring to a “soft landing,” the Fund guarantees that the result will be a slowdown in economic activity that will not lead to a recession. The International Monetary Fund expects the general level of inflation around the world to decline to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025.
“The global economic recovery has proven surprisingly resilient in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the cost of living crisis,” the report says. “At the same time, higher interest rates aimed at combating inflation, coupled with the withdrawal of fiscal support in the context of rising debt, are expected to slow growth in 2024,” the Fund adds.
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