Will La Niña be weaker than expected in 2024? Forecast Update – Fox Sports

May and June mark the beginning Rainy season 2024 for Mexico And other parts of the world. This year in particular, there is La Niña phenomenon It will affect the formation of particularly severe storms and hurricanes Atlantic OceanBut meteorologists noted A Change in direction Which was initially suggested.

The National Water Commission has already warned that this year to expect There are more hurricanes in the Atlantic than in the Pacific. This means that those countries that have maritime borders with the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea should be particularly alert, but this is a reality. New information about the La Niña phenomenon Which would directly affect the strength of natural phenomena.

What is La Niña and how does it affect hurricanes?

According to National Geographic, La Niña is a climate phenomenon Which is part of the natural global climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This global cycle has two sides: the first The warm phase known as El Niño And one The cold phase, specifically known as La Niña.

La Niña brings cooler conditions than average in the eastern tropical Pacific, in addition to other atmospheric changes, such as reduced wind shear in the Atlantic, which facilitates storm formation. thus, La Niña typically amplifies the Atlantic hurricane season.

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La Niña 2024: Weaker than expected?

Specialized portal meteor He explains And since 2022, El Niño has been the phenomenon. It is currently in a weakening stage, with its last remains still in the environment. Just as the El Niño phenomenon took months in this last stage of its life cycle, It will take months for La Niña to develop And officially unified, and formed in Second half of 2024.

“Since the first predictions of The girl returnsThere was a lot of uncertainty about the event, especially its severity. However, as we approach its beginning, the Models begin to adapt They converge towards A More accurate forecasts““, explains the aforementioned portal.

“Previously, I developed many future models The baby girl With strong intensity in the second half of 2024, but with each update, we noticed that Models have underestimated the severity of the event“they add.

Meteorologist Paula Bueno, from the aforementioned center, confirms that the future La Niña phenomenon, which will appear in the second half of 2024you probably have Weak to moderate intensity. Moreover, its most significant atmospheric effects are not expected to be felt until recently Late 2024 and early 2025.